| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Charleston Southern | 31-0 | 1522.4 | -34.8 | 1487.6 | 93.6% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Clemson | 7-22 | 1487.6 | -42.1 | 1445.5 | 24.2% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Jacksonville State | 27-31 | 1445.5 | +17.2 | 1462.7 | 50.3% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Houston | 28-42 | 1462.7 | +24.6 | 1487.3 | 8.6% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Coastal Carolina | 31-24 | 1487.3 | +9.2 | 1496.6 | 62.1% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | James Madison | 24-27 | 1496.6 | +43.5 | 1540.1 | 10.6% |