| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Fresno State | 14-42 | 1563.7 | -119.1 | 1444.6 | 59.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | USC | 20-59 | 1444.6 | -20.0 | 1424.6 | 4.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Jacksonville State | 41-34 | 1424.6 | +46.9 | 1471.5 | 26.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Maine | 45-17 | 1471.5 | +21.3 | 1492.8 | 87.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | James Madison | 10-35 | 1492.8 | -37.6 | 1455.2 | 23.3% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 35-38 | 1449.1 | -25.9 | 1423.2 | 54.7% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Georgia State | 41-24 | 1423.2 | +29.7 | 1452.9 | 69.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 24-34 | 1452.9 | -17.3 | 1435.6 | 56.4% |
| 12 | Nov 6 2025 | W | App State | 25-23 | 1452.3 | +7.4 | 1459.7 | 52.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 45-40 | 1459.7 | +0.9 | 1460.6 | 52.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 10-45 | 1460.6 | -50.2 | 1410.4 | 22.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Marshall | 24-19 | 1410.4 | +26.5 | 1436.9 | 30.0% |
| 20 | Dec 29 2025 | W | App State | 29-10 | 1446.5 | +28.6 | 1475.1 | 56.6% |